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business valuation

Are Apple and Tesla Using Monopoly Money?—Business Value, Valuation Myths, and Your Business (Part 1 in our series on Business Valuation)

This is the first part of our series on business valuation. Check out part two where we dig into what influences these different types of valuation.

Business valuation is making headlines these days. With the announcement that Apple is the first publicly traded company to surpass the trillion dollar mark and Elon Musk making Twitter waves about taking Tesla private putting its value at $72 billion, it can feel like some of the big dogs get to play with Monopoly money.

Adding to this perception that business valuation isn’t always (completely) based in reality (hint: there is a big difference between what a company’s worth in “real money” vs. what it could be worth in an acquisition), consider what’s happening in the Venture Capital (VC) ecosystem. VC investors love to reward growth metrics with higher valuations. So it’s common for startups to shop VC firms looking for the best price. This practice has some experts worried that the VC industry is the next bubble.

However, before we throw our hands up, let’s look at what we know about types of business valuation and what these mean for successful non-unicorns and their investors.

Public vs. Private Company Valuation

One of these things is not like the other.

The first thing to understand about business valuation is that we can’t easily compare the values of publicly and privately held companies. Determining the market value of a company that trades on a stock exchange (e.g., Apple, Tesla, Facebook) is fairly straightforward (though we’ll see below that this method doesn’t take into account all types of value investors might want to consider).

business valuationHowever, for private companies, the process is not as straightforward or transparent. This is because unlike public companies that must adhere to the SEC accounting and reporting standards, private companies do not report their financials publicly and since they aren’t listed on the stock exchange, it’s more difficult to determine a value for a private company.

Public company valuation: generally in the press you see market capitalization (AKA market cap, in slang) used as a valuation description (see: Apple, Tesla).

  • Market cap = stock price x number of outstanding shares
  • Example: Apple shares outstanding: 4,829,926,000 x $219.01 (closing price on 8/27/18) = $1.06T

This is pretty simple, but keep in mind that this doesn’t necessarily take into account the full range of measures used to assess the potential purchase price (aka value or market value or valuation) of a business. One of the most commonly used valuation metrics for a public company is enterprise value.

  • Enterprise value = a corporation’s market cap (see above) plus preferred stock plus outstanding debt minus cash and cash equivalents found on the balance sheet

So, let’s say that you wanted to buy Apple. The enterprise value is the amount it would cost you to buy every single share of a company’s common and preferred stock, plus take over their outstanding debt. You would subtract the cash balance because once you have acquired complete ownership of the company, the cash is yours.

  • Example: Apple’s Enterprise Value

Apple’s market cap: $1.06T + outstanding debt: $114.6B – cash and cash equivalents: $70.97B = 1.1T

Okay, so how do we determine the value of a private company. Here there are several different approaches.

Headline valuation: private company valuation metric generally based on the price paid per share at the latest preferred stock round (i.e., investment round) multiplied by the company’s fully diluted shares (see: Slack).

  • “Fully diluted shares” = Common Shares outstanding + Preferred Shares outstanding + Options outstanding + Warrants outstanding + Restricted Shares (RSUs) + Option Pool (sometimes)

See. It’s complicated. And, also a bit of a black box for the average investor. It infers that all shares were acquired at the same price as the latest round, which isn’t typically the case.

Generally, this type of valuation is used because it’s impressive on paper and in the paper (or on the screen). Keep in mind that this basic formula, while it may seem complicated, avoids a lot of the technicalities of private company valuation (but if you’re interested Scott Kupor of Andreessen Horowitz did a great post on VC valuation here).

Although private companies are not usually accessible to the average investor, there are times when private firms need to raise capital and, as a result, need to sell part ownership in the company. For example, private companies might offer employees the opportunity to purchase stock in the company or seek capital from private equity firms.

In these cases, investors can assess business valuation using another common approach:

Comparable company analysis (CCA): a method of business valuation that involves researching publicly traded companies that most closely resemble the private firm under consideration. Such analysis includes companies in the same industry (ideally a direct competitor) and of similar size, age, and growth rate.

Once an industry group of comparable companies has been established, averages of their valuations will be calculated to establish an estimate for the private company’s value. Also, if the target firm operates in an industry that has seen recent acquisitions, corporate mergers, or IPOs, investors can use the financial information from those transactions to calculate a valuation.

Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation: similar to the above method, this approach involves researching peer publicly traded companies and estimating an appropriate capital structure to apply to the target firm. From here, by discounting the target’s estimated cash flow, investors can establish a fair value for the private firm. A premium may also be added to the business valuation to compensate investors for taking a chance with the private investment.

Misconceptions About a Company’s Worth

So, what’s your company “worth?” If you’re not running a billion or trillion dollar company, you may be wondering where to start in figuring out your company’s valuation. We discussed the basics of business valuation in a previous blog article, which will give you some answers.

And, of course, you may now be wondering whether to take your company public. Or perhaps you’re thinking about raising money to fund your business. You can find out more in Audacia’s IPO Roadmap series (Part One is here).

Now that you know the basics, let’s bust a few common myths:

Business Valuation Myth #1: Valuation is a search for “objective truth.”

This may be obvious already, but all valuations have some bias built-in. Yes, investors will pick and choose the model or approach they want to use. So if you want to put your company in the best light when raising capital, it’s important to understand your target investors so you can tailor your pitch.

Business Valuation Myth #2: A good valuation provides a precise estimate of value.

In some sense, investors are not that interested in precise value. Think about it. What does the value of a company today tell you? This is a measure of what the company has done in the past. But investors are really interested in what the company will do in the future. So, the current value need not be precise to determine whether the business is a smart investment.

In fact, while this is somewhat dependent on industry, it’s arguable that the ROI is greatest when the business valuation is least precise. This could be one of the lessons learned from analyzing the VC industry in Silicon Valley.

Look at Uber, for instance, the world’s most valuable VC-backed company, with an estimated valuation of $62 billion. It’s burning through cash, losing between $500 million and $1.5 billion per quarter on a run-rate basis since early 2017. Yet the company still raised a $1.25 billion Series G led by SoftBank earlier this year, according to the PitchBook Platform.

Business Valuation Myth #3: The more quantitative the model, the better the valuation.

There are a few different schools of thought here, but often the more numbers contained in the model, the more questions investors will have. The best valuation is the one that makes sense and is clear enough to be pressure tested by investors. So beware of overly complex quantitative models and numbers that need a lot of explaining.

As you can see, business valuation for private companies is full of assumptions, educated guesses, and projections based on industry averages. With the lack of transparency, it’s often difficult for investors and analysts to place a reliable value on privately-held companies. However, this is really not much different from other aspects of business. Whether you’re a business owner considering how to raise capital or an investor looking to take a chance by getting in on the ground floor of the next big dog, business is all about taking calculated risks.

At Audacia Strategies, we love to help companies in all stages. You choose the next calculated risk and we’ll be there to support you in making bold moves confidently. Business valuation is not for the faint of heart. Get the right team on your side!

Photo credit: pressmaster / 123RF Stock Photo

managing through change

Top 5 Tips for Managing Through Change Or What I Learned While Attempting to Surf

There was a time in the not-so-distant past when executives had a simple goal for their organizations: stability. But market transparency, instantaneous communications, labor mobility, and global capital flows have swept this comfortable scenario out to sea. In most industries and in almost all companies—from giants to micro-enterprises—heightened competition from new markets have forced management to concentrate on something they happily avoided in the past: change.

Companies today need to figure out how they can capitalize on uncertainty. Success in this era means managing through change. A solid, static plan just won’t cut it. So rather than trying to plan for the inevitable and manage the change, leaders should turn their attention to managing through change.

What does managing through change look like?

Good question. I was recently thinking about this idea while on vacation—as one does. While it’s tough to come up with a one-size-fits-all methodology that fits every organization, perhaps a metaphor is a useful place to start.

Surfing and Change

My husband is a surfer. While he doesn’t get to surf as much as he’d like in D.C., we often spend vacations on the water. He surfs. I attempt to surf and spend a lot of time watching surfers and thinking about business metaphors.

On a recent trip, while I was bobbing in the ocean waiting for a wave (okay, more honestly, I was trying to catch my breath after falling and paddling back out for the hundredth time), I got to thinking about how surfing is like managing through change.

The best surfers are masters at riding the big waves. They know better than to try to manage the waves (I’m not even sure what that would look like). They don’t spend a lot of time hoping they’ll be able to stand up or planning to use the very best technique to balance on the board. They feel the flow of the ocean way more than they manage or hope or plan.

In broad terms, this is what it’s like to manage through change. Instead of bracing for the bump, skilled leaders accept that rough waters are coming, learn to embrace the change, and engage their entire organizations.

managing through change

Now let’s try to move past mere metaphor, shall we? Rather than offering a single methodology here, what follows is a “Top 5” list of best practices and guiding principles that can be adapted to fit a variety of situations calling for managing through the change.

1. Watch the sets come in.

In surf lingo, “set waves” refers to a group of larger waves. There’s a rhythm to the ocean on any given day or time of day. As you keep an eye on the horizon and watch these sets coming through, you start to get a feel for the rhythm and begin to prepare to catch a ride.

There’s also a rhythm to markets and if you watch the trends, you will get a feel for it. Managing through change means anticipating market trends and developing flexible strategies to prepare your team for what’s coming. In a highly competitive environment, that means going deeper than your competitors. Is there an untapped resource, you’ve had your eye on for some time? Perhaps it’s time to bring in that consultant or find another way to infuse fresh ideas.

In addition to being prepared for market trends, set your expectations. There are times when pulling back and being a bit more conservative is the right move. But this can be a hard pill to swallow, especially for highly competitive leaders and teams. So set the expectation from the outset: choose a date (or other benchmark) by which time to make a decision. Until then, maintain awareness, anticipate what you can, and prepare.

2. Be in position to catch that wave.

Sometimes the waves in business and on the ocean roll in more slowly than you would like. The “hurry up and wait” cycle can get old. So, make sure you are taking advantage of the waiting periods to understand where you are, what the wave (AKA change) looks like, and where you want to be at the end of your ride (i.e., you want to avoid being smashed into the rocks!).

Knowing your goal and having your exit strategy is just as important as riding that big wave as far as it wants to take you. Get in position by creating a game plan that’s flexible enough for your purposes:

  • Define success carefully. Consider the ideal goal, but also what, at a minimum, will count as a win. Be generous.
  • Do your market research. Don’t skimp on this step! Rushing into a big change without doing the right research sets everyone up for failure.
  • Understand your strengths and weaknesses. Transformation affects every level of your organization. Make sure you identify leaders early in the process and give them the tools they need to execute their specific missions. Also, look for any gaps in communication across departments. Strategize about how to create more cooperation.

3. It takes more work than you think to catch that wave.

Paddle harder (or, as my husband says/yells, “paddle, paddle, paddle, paddle!”). Once you know you are in the right position and ready to catch the wave, the real work begins. You have to dig deep and do the work to catch that wave, so you can jump up on that board. Then you have to dig deep again to maintain your balance and ride that wave.

We know all too well that market forces shift. So even if you brilliantly complete the first two steps above, the market can suddenly leave you stranded alone on a deserted island. Alternatively, if those market forces do hold in just the way you were hoping, you’ll likely run into others surfing the same wave. So you need to be ready to adjust to markets shifting AND to competition shifting.

4. Waves don’t always do what you want them to do—be ready to adapt.

Change projects, like big waves, pick up momentum as they build. If you aren’t prepared to adapt, things can get out of control quickly. This means leaders at all levels of the organization must be empowered to rapidly adapt.

Successful startups are often successful because they have mastered the art of managing through change in precisely this way. Their agility gives them a huge advantage over large competitors in a market that rewards adaptability. But even giants can adopt and modify plays from the startup playbook.

For example, what is the status of your innovation pipeline? Is there an effective process for employees at all levels to introduce ideas up the chain? Is the culture such that employees feel motivated, heard, and supported in suggesting innovations?

5. Enjoy the ride and watch the view—you earned it.

In the midst of all this, don’t forget to savor the moment. Even if you only manage to ride the wave for a short time, take pleasure in the fact that it was your hard work that helped you see this new vista. And, appreciate the hard work that it took to get there. Going through the process has given you insights that you can use in the future too.

Finally, get ready to do it all again. Change, like waves, keeps coming.

While the Audacia Strategies team can’t promise to teach you how to surf Banzai Pipeline, we are experts at helping firms of all sizes manage through big waves of business transformation. Hey, we’ll take our inspiration wherever we can get it! If you’re looking for a bold team to help you build your way through change, contact us and let’s set up a consultation.

Photo Credit: IKO / 123RF Stock Photo

investor relations

Investor Relations Starts At Home: 3 Tips for Disclosing Q3 Earnings

This week it seems like everyone in the financial world has been obsessing over companies like Apple and Google releasing their Q3 earnings reports. For analysts, preparing to disclose earnings is one of the biggest challenges of investor relations. Wall Street has been in a holding pattern during the past 30 days. But the perceived wisdom is that if any of these big companies reveals an earnings surprise, it could be just the jolt investors need to bring them out of their malaise. I’d say the jury is still out though.

There is no doubt that quarterly earnings are a crucial measure to watch. Still, as you develop a strategy for communicating your company’s Q3 earnings to investors, consider that finding the right message is as important as the actual data you are communicating. It’s always a good idea to keep things in perspective. Since companies aren’t valued in a vacuum, having situational awareness is essential to communicating the right message to your investors.

In fact, situational awareness is so essential to investor relations that we think it deserves a three-part series of its own. So we’ll start off in this post with tips for helping you view your company from the outside in. We will follow up with posts about knowing your peers and knowing the market.

What is situational awareness and why is it key for your quarterly earnings strategy?

As you might have guessed, there are three main components to situational awareness: knowing yourself, knowing your peers, and knowing the market. Each of these components plays a role in preparing you to discuss your company’s valuation with investors. Investors want you to give them the numbers, but they also want you to help them interpret the numbers. Remember that they are looking to you as an expert on their investment.

This is especially true when it comes to disclosing earnings. Building a successful investor relations strategy is about getting into the minds of your investors. From an investor’s perspective having more information is always preferable to having less, so anything you can do to put those numbers in context will be well received.

Think of it this way. Which is more helpful for investors to know:

  • Your earnings rose 10%?
  • Or your earnings rose 10% while your closest competitor’s earnings rose 8%?

That the second one jumps out as more helpful demonstrates the power of situational awareness. Now, we’re not saying you call out your competitors’ results specifically but you definitely want to note the “industry-leading” results during your earnings call. An investor relations strategy that integrates situational awareness doesn’t simply focus on telling the story of your quarter. It also positions your company relative to how your peers performed and to how the market itself performed, giving your investors a more complete picture of your company’s performance.

So let’s talk strategy.

What does it mean to know yourself?

1. Know your company better than anyone else.

This should go without saying, but no one external to your company should understand your company better than you do. So develop your own models, craft earnings polls, and get into the minds of analysts to understand how they are really evaluating you.

Additionally, rather than making assumptions about what analysts are thinking about your company based on their research, reverse engineer the research whenever possible. Get your sell side analysts’ models and compare and contrast. If it becomes obvious to you that analysts are operating under incorrect assumptions, build some commentary into your earnings call discussion to explain any discrepancies and to give more context for their revised models.

2. Know what the analysts ask.

Examine the questions analysts asked about your company and your peers during the last quarter (or even during the last few quarters). Compare those questions to what they are asking during the current earnings season. For example, if analysts asked about the risks associated with a particular raw material three quarters ago, but haven’t asked since, this might explain discrepancies between your internal reports and the external reports you’re seeing.

Don’t simply assume the questions analysts ask are consistent from quarter to quarter. While it can be tempting to dismiss a lower than expected valuation from analysts on grounds that they don’t have the complete picture, investors will rightly hold you accountable for failing to anticipate and adjust internal models.

3. Know yourself relative to your peers.

This bleeds over into what we’ll talk about in more depth next week, but part of knowing yourself includes knowing how you will handle the release of peer earnings reports. Because many data points are more meaningful in the context of understanding industry trends, keeping tabs on your competition is key to understanding how to position yourself with investors.

For instance, in the defense industry where there has been a mostly flat business landscape for much of the past year, it makes sense for defense contractors to pull back and take a more austere approach to allocating resources. But if you know your competition is taking this approach, while your company is increasing its investment in research and development, for example, you may have a powerful discriminator that sets you apart from your peers. Well communicated and in context, a carefully considered, seemingly contrarian investment strategy could really pay off in potential valuation.

Long story short, if you aren’t keeping tabs on your competition and how they handle macro-issues facing your industry, then you are operating at a serious disadvantage. It’s a little bit like showing up to a tennis match with a ping-pong paddle. Of course, it’s important to work on your backhand, but if you haven’t studied your competition carefully, you risk underestimating them.

Stay tuned for next week’s continuation of this series on situational awareness and investor relations when we’ll discuss knowing your peers on a deeper level. In the meantime, if you would like help communicating a consistent and compelling investment story, we’re always ready to talk disclosure strategy (with as much geeky detail as you can handle, of course). No matter how well you know your company, we understand that it can be challenging to know how to frame your message and to develop the right outreach plan. Contact us today. We’ve got your back!

Photo credit: Wavebreak Media Ltd