US election and stock market

3 Things to Remember When the Stock Market Responds to the US Election

Raise your hand if you’re ready for the US election to be over. I know, me too. But, as tired as we are of the vitriolic finger pointing, cringe-worthy Facebook posts, and waking up to new scandals (and non-scandals) every day, many are terrified that the worst is yet to come. Could we wake-up on the morning after the US election to a plummeting stock market?

In keeping with our theme of situational awareness, there is nothing quite as challenging, from an investor relations standpoint, as a drastic shock to the market. However, if you know your company and you know your competition, you will be in better shape to weather whatever storm is brewing. In this final installment of our series, we’ll discuss three ways to know the market so you can prepare for the worst-case scenario.

Why are stock speculators feeling spooked about the US election?

We know financial markets respond to geopolitical events. For example, if this summer’s Brexit vote is any indication of what’s in store for us after the US election, we could be in for a wild ride over the next few weeks. After the Brexit vote, the British pound collapsed and global stock markets plummeted.

What is the economic explanation for why black swan events like Brexit or the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 cause stocks to fall? Basically, increased uncertainty about the future means more investors get out of than into the stock market during a certain period of time, which leads to falling stock prices.

So how could the US election lead to a significant stock selloff? It’s all about uncertainty.

Think of it this way: If Donald Trump wins there will be a lot of uncertainty. How will our allies and adversaries around the world respond if Commander In Chief Trump pulls us out of NATO? Will Trump’s promises to deport undocumented workers and build a wall on the Mexico-US border spark widespread protests?

While most policy wonks agree that a Hillary Clinton victory would have a stabilizing effect on the aerospace and defense market, the US has never been so politically polarized. Not to mention that if the popular vote is close and the election is contested, the result will be increased uncertainty. Too much uncertainty makes investing in the stock market feel closer to gambling, so risk-averse investors will simply choose to save their money rather than risking it on an uncertain future.

How do you deal with your investors if the worst happens?

While it is impossible to prepare for all that could go wrong, if you have maintained that “ready stance,” you will be more confident when you explain to investors what steps you are taking to make the best of a bad situation. And your investors and analysts will appreciate a thoughtful message delivered confidently, particularly when others are reactively grasping at straws.

Follow these three pieces of advice whenever markets behave badly:

1. Stay engaged

When scary things happen to us, our first instinct is to curl up in the fetal position (if not literally, then figuratively, which can be just as bad during times like these). But we need to do what we can to resist this paralyzing instinct.

The most productive thing you can do if the markets are volatile on November 9th is stay engaged. It will be difficult to pick up the phone and talk with investors, but accept that while you may not have all the answers, investors will feel better if you tell them what you do know. And remember to return to our discussion about knowing your business and how it fits into your broader market.

So, do your homework, get the facts, stay in touch with your team, and be ready with a game plan as quickly as possible. All investors can ask of you in times of uncertainty is that you are candid and timely in your assessment of the situation. This is not a time to read the tea leaves or speculate.

2. Be transparent

When you speak with investors and analysts after the US election, be transparent. As tempting as it is to sugarcoat or avoid tough questions from investors, now is not the time to be evasive. Be candid about what is known and unknown. Return to what you know about your company, your strategy and your competitive landscape.

A big drop in the stock market affects everyone. It does no good to pretend that your company or industry is magically better off than every other company or industry. So be honest.

Your investors look to you to tell them what is rational in this frightening time of uncertainty. They look to you to set their expectations. So you need a gameplan. Your job is not to be a cheerleader. Your job is to provide as much clarity in an uncertain situation as possible.

3. Go back to fundamentals

When a catastrophic event occurs causing a huge shift in the market, return to fundamentals. Analysts will develop complex models that attempt to take into account outliers caused by highly improbable events. But often their views will contradict. It’s important to that you remain aware of the incoming information, clear-eyed in your assessment and rational.

Take a deep breath and consider what has changed and what hasn’t changed about your industry. Get your team together and discuss whether your strategy should change. Sometimes it makes sense to ride it out. If you stick to your message and core values, you will be in the best position to guide investors in their decision making.

Also, don’t ignore your intuition. Often when markets behave badly and unpredictably, the usual models fail us because circumstances are unusual. In these difficult times, those who ignore the old models often come through the crisis best.

I’m optimistic that the great experiment that is America will survive the 2016 presidential election. But the fact is that we are living in volatile times. Do you have clear procedures in place to keep your strategy moving forward when the unexpected occurs?

If you need help staying up on shifting markets, let Audacia Strategies be your port in this storm. We can guide you through developing a consistent, strategic message to communicate to your investors. Schedule your FREE consultation today (before or after you vote).

Photo credit: rawpixel / 123RF Stock Photo

investor relations

Investor Relations Starts At Home: 3 Tips for Disclosing Q3 Earnings

This week it seems like everyone in the financial world has been obsessing over companies like Apple and Google releasing their Q3 earnings reports. For analysts, preparing to disclose earnings is one of the biggest challenges of investor relations. Wall Street has been in a holding pattern during the past 30 days. But the perceived wisdom is that if any of these big companies reveals an earnings surprise, it could be just the jolt investors need to bring them out of their malaise. I’d say the jury is still out though.

There is no doubt that quarterly earnings are a crucial measure to watch. Still, as you develop a strategy for communicating your company’s Q3 earnings to investors, consider that finding the right message is as important as the actual data you are communicating. It’s always a good idea to keep things in perspective. Since companies aren’t valued in a vacuum, having situational awareness is essential to communicating the right message to your investors.

In fact, situational awareness is so essential to investor relations that we think it deserves a three-part series of its own. So we’ll start off in this post with tips for helping you view your company from the outside in. We will follow up with posts about knowing your peers and knowing the market.

What is situational awareness and why is it key for your quarterly earnings strategy?

As you might have guessed, there are three main components to situational awareness: knowing yourself, knowing your peers, and knowing the market. Each of these components plays a role in preparing you to discuss your company’s valuation with investors. Investors want you to give them the numbers, but they also want you to help them interpret the numbers. Remember that they are looking to you as an expert on their investment.

This is especially true when it comes to disclosing earnings. Building a successful investor relations strategy is about getting into the minds of your investors. From an investor’s perspective having more information is always preferable to having less, so anything you can do to put those numbers in context will be well received.

Think of it this way. Which is more helpful for investors to know:

  • Your earnings rose 10%?
  • Or your earnings rose 10% while your closest competitor’s earnings rose 8%?

That the second one jumps out as more helpful demonstrates the power of situational awareness. Now, we’re not saying you call out your competitors’ results specifically but you definitely want to note the “industry-leading” results during your earnings call. An investor relations strategy that integrates situational awareness doesn’t simply focus on telling the story of your quarter. It also positions your company relative to how your peers performed and to how the market itself performed, giving your investors a more complete picture of your company’s performance.

So let’s talk strategy.

What does it mean to know yourself?

1. Know your company better than anyone else.

This should go without saying, but no one external to your company should understand your company better than you do. So develop your own models, craft earnings polls, and get into the minds of analysts to understand how they are really evaluating you.

Additionally, rather than making assumptions about what analysts are thinking about your company based on their research, reverse engineer the research whenever possible. Get your sell side analysts’ models and compare and contrast. If it becomes obvious to you that analysts are operating under incorrect assumptions, build some commentary into your earnings call discussion to explain any discrepancies and to give more context for their revised models.

2. Know what the analysts ask.

Examine the questions analysts asked about your company and your peers during the last quarter (or even during the last few quarters). Compare those questions to what they are asking during the current earnings season. For example, if analysts asked about the risks associated with a particular raw material three quarters ago, but haven’t asked since, this might explain discrepancies between your internal reports and the external reports you’re seeing.

Don’t simply assume the questions analysts ask are consistent from quarter to quarter. While it can be tempting to dismiss a lower than expected valuation from analysts on grounds that they don’t have the complete picture, investors will rightly hold you accountable for failing to anticipate and adjust internal models.

3. Know yourself relative to your peers.

This bleeds over into what we’ll talk about in more depth next week, but part of knowing yourself includes knowing how you will handle the release of peer earnings reports. Because many data points are more meaningful in the context of understanding industry trends, keeping tabs on your competition is key to understanding how to position yourself with investors.

For instance, in the defense industry where there has been a mostly flat business landscape for much of the past year, it makes sense for defense contractors to pull back and take a more austere approach to allocating resources. But if you know your competition is taking this approach, while your company is increasing its investment in research and development, for example, you may have a powerful discriminator that sets you apart from your peers. Well communicated and in context, a carefully considered, seemingly contrarian investment strategy could really pay off in potential valuation.

Long story short, if you aren’t keeping tabs on your competition and how they handle macro-issues facing your industry, then you are operating at a serious disadvantage. It’s a little bit like showing up to a tennis match with a ping-pong paddle. Of course, it’s important to work on your backhand, but if you haven’t studied your competition carefully, you risk underestimating them.

Stay tuned for next week’s continuation of this series on situational awareness and investor relations when we’ll discuss knowing your peers on a deeper level. In the meantime, if you would like help communicating a consistent and compelling investment story, we’re always ready to talk disclosure strategy (with as much geeky detail as you can handle, of course). No matter how well you know your company, we understand that it can be challenging to know how to frame your message and to develop the right outreach plan. Contact us today. We’ve got your back!

Photo credit: Wavebreak Media Ltd